We foresee unemployment remaining steady and staying at this mid-to-high 5% level which is substantially less than the 6-8% ranges seen during previous recessions.

June’s job losses were substantially less than those reported during each month in Q108, so Q208 was able to come in well below the job loss threshold set in the first part of the year. This indicates that we may continue to see a closer return to the center when it comes to payrolls and jobs. Although we anticipate continued declines in job numbers over the coming months, these losses will likely stay contained within the 50,000-100,000 marker – an improved indicator from the 300,000 range seen during the 2001 recession.

Unemployment for college graduates continues to hover around 2% – less than half the national average and almost one-third the unemployment rate for those with only a high school diploma. We continue to see high demand in the highly-skilled and educated portion of the job market and don’t see any reason for this trend to stop in the near term.