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August 2008 |
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Our outlook This month’s increase in unemployment was aligned with our forecast in the early part of 2008 when we predicted that unemployment would rise to the mid-high 5% marker throughout the year. We foresee unemployment staying at this mid-to-high 5% level, which is substantially less than the 6-8% ranges seen during previous recessions.
July’s job losses were nearly half those reported during each month in Q108 and indicate a continued move sideways for the job market. This is a sign that we may continue to see a return to the center when it comes to payrolls and jobs. Although we anticipate continued declines in job numbers over the coming months, these losses will likely stay contained within the 50,000-100,000 mark – an improved indicator from the 300,000 range seen during the 2001 recession. Unemployment for college graduates continues to hover around 2% – less than half the national average and almost one-third the unemployment rate for those with only a high school diploma. We also continue to see high demand in the highly-skilled and educated portion of the job market and don’t see any reason for this trend to stop in the near term. |
